Forecasting and Modelling 
Organisations need clear line of sight of what Can, Could and Cannot be done by nationals or local suppliers within each scope of work and phase of a project development or operation.
 
LCS has models for procurement professionals to conduct gap analysis of the extent to which local labour and supplier markets have the required  capability, capacity and  competitiveness.
Foreasting Local Capability
Key Success Factors for Forecasting Local Content
  • Run iterations of the forecasts at each stage of project engineering.  On the Demand-side, this means proressing from initial cost estimates to final contract budgets.  On the Supply-side, from professional estimates of local labour and supplier capablilty, to on-the-ground market surveys.
 
  • At ealy stages of project engineering, when concepts are not yet fixed and knowledge of local skills and supplier markets is weak, do not expect forcasts to be greater than +/- 30%  accurate.   But even this level of accuracy will likely be sufficient to highlight the key opportunities for Local Content and to  start plannnig for capacity building.
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  • Be consistent in the use of definitines and formulae across each iteration of the forecasts, such that improvements in accuracy are readily explained and more credible.
 
  • As far as practicable, collborate with other stakeholders to improve forecasts accuracy and credibility.   Hiding data away is unlikley to engender trust in the numbers when they are released, and may mean that by the time the data is disclosed, it is late to contrbution to what rationale Local Content targets might look like.
Modelling In-Country Vaue (ICV)
We have developed a straightforward and transparent model for calculating the Direct, Indirect and Induced economic impacts of Local Content activity.
 
The model is part of the tool kit available to the oil and gas industry across Oman for Tender Boards to judge whether a higher priced bid with an excellent Local Content Plan, is better value-for-money than a lower priced bid with a poor quality Local Content Plan
Illustration of how ICV Modellig is integrated with Tender Board decision-making